Moon Visibility Affects Traffic Accidents: A Prehospital Ambulance Data Registry Study in Japan
Author: Hiroshi Takyu and Hideharu Tanaka | |
Associate Authors:
<p><strong>Introduction:</strong></p>
<p>Redelmeier (2017) reported on the relationship between the full moon and motorcycle-related mortality. However, it is not certain whether moon visibility is related to traffic accidents.</p>
<p><strong>Objective:</strong></p>
<p>To investigate the relationship between moon visibility and traffic accidents using moon phases, weather conditions, and position of the moon above or below the horizon.</p>
<p><strong>Methods:</strong></p>
<p>Data on 1.82 million traffic accidents from 2017 to 2021 in Japan were extracted from a prehospital ambulance data registry. Data on the day of new moon, first-quarter moon, full moon, and third-quarter moon were selected from the registry. The weather observation times by the central meteorological observatory in each prefecture are 18:00, 21:00, 03:00, and 06:00, so we extracted traffic accident data at those times. It was determined whether the moon was above or below the horizon for each prefectural office at the traffic accident time by using the database of the national astronomical observatory. Based on inclusion criteria, 25,785 cases were included in this study. The crude odds ratio (cOR) of the number of traffic accidents with and without moonrise was obtained for clear sky (moon is visible) over cloudy or rain sky (moon is not visible).</p>
<p><strong>Results:</strong></p>
<p>The cOR and 95% confidence interval of the full cohort was 1.17 (1.12–1.23). Subgroup analyses were performed for age (7–17, 18–64, 65 and older), gender (male, female) and day of week (weekday, weekend, national holiday). The cORs and 95% confidence intervals for these subgroups were greater than 1.0. However, the season from October–March, which has longer nighttime than daytime, had a cOR and 95% confidence interval of less than 1.0. The period after midnight (3:00 and 6:00) is close to dawn and the moon is no longer shining. This period had a cOR and 95% confidence interval of less than 1.0. These results strongly suggest that traffic accidents increase with moon visibility.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion:</strong></p>
<p>The odds ratio of the number of traffic accidents increases when the moon is shining, especially in the long nighttime season. If a “do not watch the moon” alarm could be triggered based on the prehospital ambulance data registry in each state or country, it would reduce the number of traffic accidents.</p>
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